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Will there be a breakthrough in Doha round talks this year?

A fresh spell of international efforts is likely to start this month to lease a fresh life to the failing Doha trade talks, what could better be translated as the final attempt to make Doha round successful. Diplomatic efforts and talks are already underway to save the package of liberalization measures by pursuing the U.S., the European Union and India to resolve their differences. In the meanwhile, Downing Street as well intensified its efforts to make Doha round successful, notwithstanding with the grand failure of the World Trade Organization talks in last July. In its bid to make a breakthrough in the stalled differences U.K. is now putting pressures on the U.S. and the E.U., giving it a political push to resolve the dispute. However, a major breakthrough is only possible if the U.S. agrees to cut its subsidies to its farm sector. Therefore, experts are closely waiting for the Democrat dominated Congress in the U.S. to swear in next month, which is likely to spell out clear indication to their intention of making the WTO round successful. It would not be easy to for the White House to take an easy decision on the subsidy cut, and precisely why experts are still not sure whether the U.S. wants to sign a global deal or not. Unquestionably, if the U.S. agrees to sign the deal, it would require the state to make bigger cuts in subsidies to U.S. farmers in comparison to the present level. In addition to it, George Bush has to face a demand for a new farm bill as the current envelope of support expires this year and new farm bill, if the U.S. comes up with, would prove to be the final nail in the coffin for Doha round talks. Obviously, Doha is of course not dead yet but it is very difficult to break the political deadlock between countries over the issue. However, the current year is very crucial for the Doha round and for the credibility of the WTO, which has not witnessed any failed trade talks since 1930. Further, if the differences are not settled in the current year the talks can only be resumed by mid 2009 since the next year is out of question for any negotiation in the wake of presidential elections in the U.S.


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